U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% pace in the second quarter, much more than expected (2024)

U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% pace in the second quarter, much more than expected (1)

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U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% pace in the second quarter, much more than expected

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Economic activity in the U.S. was considerably stronger than expected during the second quarter, boosted by a strong consumer, government spending and a sizeable inventory build, according to an initial estimate Thursday from the Commerce Department.

Real gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced during the April-through-June period, increased at a 2.8% annualized pace adjusted for seasonality and inflation. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for growth of 2.1% following a 1.4% rise in the first quarter.

Consumer spending helped propel the growth number higher, as did contributions from private inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment, according to the first of three estimates the department will provide.

Personal consumption expenditures, the main proxy in the Bureau of Economic Analysis report for consumer activity, increased 2.3% for the quarter, up from the 1.5% acceleration in Q1. Both services and goods spending saw solid increases for the quarter.

Inventories also were a significant contributor, adding 0.82 percentage point to the total gain. Government spending added a tailwind as well, rising 3.9% at the federal level, including a 5.2% surge in defense outlays.

On the downside, imports, which subtract from GDP, jumped 6.9%, the biggest quarterly rise since Q1 of 2022. Exports were up just 2%.

Stock market futures drifted higher following the report while Treasury yields moved lower.

"The composition of growth was one of the better mixes that we have observed in some time," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. The report "tends to support the idea that the American economy is in the midst of a productivity boom which over the medium term will lift living standards across the country via lower inflation, low employment and rising real wages."

There was some good news on the inflation front: the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key measure for the Federal Reserve, increased 2.6% for the quarter, down from the 3.4% move in Q1. Excluding food and energy, core PCE prices, which the Fed focuses on even more as a longer-term inflation indicator, were up 2.9%, compared to a 3.7% increase in the prior period.

The so-called chain-weighted price index, which takes into account changes in consumer behavior, increased 2.3% for the quarter, below the 2.6% estimate.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen saw the GDP report as "affirming the path we're on to steady growth and declining inflation," in remarks she delivered Thursday morning in Rio de Janeiro.

U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% pace in the second quarter, much more than expected (2)

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One other key variable, final sales to private domestic purchasers, which the Fed considers a good indicator of underlying demand, accelerated at a 2.6% pace, the same as in the prior quarter.

However, the report also indicated that the personal savings rate continues to decelerate, at 3.5% for the quarter, compared with 3.8% in Q1.

There have been signs of cracks lately in the consumer picture.

A report Wednesday from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve showed credit card delinquencies at an all-time high according to data going back to 2012. Revolving debt balances also reached a new high even as banks reported tightening credit standards and declining new card originations.

However, retail sales numbers have continued to climb indicating that consumers are weathering the headwinds of high interest rates and persistent inflation.

There also is pressure in the housing market: Sales are declining while home prices continue to rise, putting stress on first-time homebuyers.

Federal Reserve officials are expected to hold interest rates steady when they meet next week, though market pricing is pointing to the first cut in four years in September. Policymakers have been circ*mspect about when they might start reducing rates, though recent comments indicate more of a willingness to start easing policy and most central bankers have said they see further increases as unlikely.

In other economic news Thursday, the Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims totaled 235,000 for the week ended July 20, down 10,000 from the previous week and exactly in line with the Dow Jones forecast. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, edged lower to 1.85 million.

Also, orders for durable goods — generally big-ticket items such as aircraft, appliances and computers — unexpectedly fell 6.6% in June, compared with the forecast for a 0.3% increase. However, excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5%.

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U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% pace in the second quarter, much more than expected (2024)

FAQs

U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% pace in the second quarter, much more than expected? ›

Real gross domestic product increased at a 2.8% annualized pace in the second quarter, above the 2.1% forecast. The personal consumption expenditures price index, a key measure for the Fed, rose 2.6% for the quarter, down from the 3.4% move in Q1. Core PCE prices were up 2.9%, down from 3.7%.

Did the U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% pace in the second quarter? ›

The Commerce Department had previously estimated that the nation's gross domestic product — the total output of goods and services — expanded at a 2.8 percent rate from April through June. The second-quarter growth marked a sharp acceleration from a sluggish 1.4 percent growth rate in the first three months of 2024.

Did the U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% rate in the second quarter? ›

The numbers: The U.S. economy grew at a 3% annual pace in the second quarter instead of the 2.8% rate originally estimated, revised government data released Thursday show. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal were expecting second quarter GDP to be unrevised at 2.8% rate.

Is the U.S. economy grew 2.8% in Q2 likely heading for a soft landing with cooling inflation? ›

The U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% annualized rate in the second quarter—a faster rate than economists expected as consumer spending increased and businesses built up inventories, the Commerce Department said on Thursday.

What is the GDP growth rate in the second quarter? ›

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate for economic growth in the second quarter (Q2) of 2024. The report found that real U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.8 percent.

What is the strongest economy in the world today? ›

The United States upholds its status as the major global economy and richest country, steadfastly preserving its pinnacle position from 1960 to 2023. Its economy boasts remarkable diversity, propelled by important sectors, including services, manufacturing, finance, and technology.

What years were the worst for the US economy? ›

According to the Department of Labor, roughly 8.7 million jobs (about 7%) were shed from February 2008 to February 2010, and real GDP contracted by 4.2% between Q4 2007 and Q2 2009, making the Great Recession the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.

Did the economy grew last quarter? ›

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. economy grew last quarter at a healthy 3% annual pace, fueled by strong consumer spending and business investment, the government said Thursday in an upgrade of its initial assessment.

What is the economy in the second quarter of 2024? ›

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2024 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent.

Is the US economy growing? ›

US economic growth increased last quarter to a healthy 2.8% annual rate | AP News.

Is the US economy overheating? ›

WASHINGTON, July 9 (Reuters) - The U.S. is "no longer an overheated economy" with a job market that has cooled from its pandemic-era extremes and in many ways is back where it was before the health crisis, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in remarks to Congress that suggested the case for interest rate cuts is becoming ...

Is a hard or soft landing a recession? ›

If the central bank raises interest rates too high or too soon, it could cause a hard landing. That is, the economy could dip into a recession. If the central bank raises interest rates slowly or in small increments, it is aiming for a soft landing.

When did the United States experience a steep recession? ›

In the Great Depression, GDP fell by 27% (the deepest after demobilization is the recession beginning in December 2007, during which GDP had fallen 5.1% by the second quarter of 2009) and the unemployment rate reached 24.9% (the highest since was the 10.8% rate reached during the 1981–1982 recession).

Did the U.S. economy grew a robust 2.8% in the second quarter? ›

The newest GDP reading offers a snapshot of a strong economy that has slowed since 2023. The U.S. economy grew at a surprisingly robust 2.8 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, capping two years of solid expansion, despite some signs of softening.

What is the real GDP in Q2? ›

BEA now estimates real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.0% in Q2. This follows a reported real GDP increase of 1.4% in Q1. The “second” estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the “advance” estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.8%.

What was the U.S. GDP in Q2 investing? ›

Headline US GDP growth rose by 2.8% (saar) in Q2 – twice the pace of the previous quarter. This was above our expectation for GDP growth of 2.0% (and consensus for the same), but in line with the Federal Reserve of Atlanta's GDP now tracker, which rose to 2.7% after June's retail sales rebound and revisions.

When did the US economy start to grow? ›

By 1983, inflation had eased, the economy had rebounded, and the United States began a sustained period of economic growth.

Why did the US economy grow exponentially in the second half of the 1800s? ›

Old industries expanded and many new ones, including petroleum refining, steel manufacturing, and electrical power, emerged. Railroads expanded significantly, bringing even remote parts of the country into a national market economy. Industrial growth transformed American society.

Why did the US economy grow rapidly in the period after the Second World War? ›

The economy thrived after World War II in large part because America made it easier for people who had been previously shut out of economic opportunity — women, minority groups, immigrants — to enter the work force and climb the economic ladder, to make better use of their talents and potential.

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